The Blank Swan: The End of Probability. Elie Ayache
ISBN: 9780470725221 | 496 pages | 13 Mb
The Blank Swan: The End of Probability Elie Ayache
Dec 4, 2011 - Gold, Eurodollars, and the Black Swan That Will Devour the US Futures and Derivatives Markets :: The Market Oracle :: Financial Markets Analysis & Forecasting Free Website. The other two authors are physicist Yaneer Bar-Yam, and politician-philosopher Rupert Read. May 25, 2014 - For those who do not have access to the Knoxville News Sentinel, I have posted my article from this weekend here for discussion. In the end, the authors have clearly demonstrated that they do not care about biology, medicine or rational risk analysis. Aug 24, 2010 - This is getting very complicated – may I suggest to read Elie Ayach's “The Blank Swan: The End of Probability” or an older book by Vovk and Shafer before considering global strategic games we all play. Jul 8, 2013 - In other words, a black swan does not create a new category of events, but is simply the occurrence of a known category, the probability of which was underestimated. A prediction can be made on the balance of probabilities or apparent trends, but in the end the pressures for change do not produce change. I have included further commentary at the end that I could not include in this first piece. Runaway credit growth underpinning Although much of the proceeds of foreign exchange transactions end up with the banking system and subsequently converted into loans. Jan 19, 2014 - Not only has interest rates soared, but the credit pressures have become apparent anew as China's annual probability of default based on 5 year credit default swaps have risen. May 4, 2014 - One of the authors is statistician Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who has previously written books such as The Black Swan on the impact of low-probability events. Mark Lowenthal's comment on Black Swans also illuminates an important . Black swans therefore belong to the field of risk. But the effect is there, and the smart money closer to the financial system sees it coming. So this eurodollar creation is made outside the real domestic economy, and therefore has no immediate effect on domestic money supply and prices at the end of the money chain. China's money supply growth has soared past the US. Sep 1, 2013 - However, after a Dutch explorer discovered black swans in Western Australia toward the end of that century, the possibility of having black swans was accepted but subject to very low probability. Apr 23, 2014 - Kris Wheaton's reflection on his class discussion (How to Analyze Black Swans) is useful in understanding the challenge of elaborating future possibilities in intelligence assessments. They occur not because their probability is inherently In the end, there seems to be really very few human situations of calculable risk in theory or practice. A volatile unstable situation continues to be volatile and unstable. They have negligible knowledge of molecular biology, plant breeding and genetic engineering.
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